Roland Berger and the German famous automotive research institute Aachen Automotive Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. jointly released the "Global Electric Vehicle Development Index for the second quarter of 2017". The report shows that for the first time, China ranks first in the world in the overall ranking of the electric vehicle development index, and will lead the global electric vehicle industry and market in the future. Despite the tightening of the government’s new energy policy and the weakening of subsidies, China’s electric vehicle and battery manufacturing market share will continue to maintain a strong growth and further expand its leading edge.
The report compares the development of electric vehicles in China, Germany, France, Italy, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Overall, China ranked first in the index for the first time. The United States and Germany ranked second and third respectively. Japan, which ranked first in the index ranking in the previous quarter, lost its leading position. The report predicts that in the foreseeable future, China will lead the industry and market of electric vehicles.
On the technical level, France surpassed Germany and ranked first. This is mainly due to the fact that more German OEMs have large-scale production capacity and plug-in hybrid vehicles with the lowest electric speed per hour, resulting in a slight decrease in the technical capacity of their electric vehicles. Japan ranks third, its vehicle manufacturer's electric vehicle technology level is higher and the price is more affordable. Chinese OEMs are still mainly located in areas with low technological content.
At the aggregate level of the industry, China is gradually expanding its leading position, which is mainly due to the rapid growth of the market, the continued differentiation of regional markets and the expansion of local automobile demand, and the increase in output of Chinese OEMs as demand increases. Aspect factors. In the field of battery manufacturing, China's advantages are even more pronounced. Compared with China, Japan is at a disadvantage in terms of electric vehicle production and global battery output, ranking third. The US industry has improved its performance and ranked second.
In terms of market scale, China’s demand has further increased dramatically, but the market share of electric vehicles is still slightly lower than that of France, ranking second, and the United States ranking third.
The data shows that in 2016, China produced more than 350,000 plug-in hybrid and pure electric passenger vehicles, sales maintained double-digit growth, and market share rose from 0.8% to 1.3%. In the same year, the number of registered electric vehicles in Germany, France and the United States both achieved double-digit growth. But overall, in 2016, the market share of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in only two countries, France and China, exceeded 1%.
The report believes that the rapid growth in the sales of electric vehicles in China is mainly due to the government's substantial subsidies and major city restrictions on gasoline vehicles, but the government’s policy on car manufacturers is tightening. At the end of last year, the government’s subsidy for electric vehicles was reduced by 20%, and the conditions for new energy vehicles to be admitted to the list of candidates have become more stringent.
Zheng Zheng, a partner at Roland Berger, stated: "Although the government's incentive policies played an important role in promoting the development of the industry at the initial stage, it is difficult to maintain for a long time. The government needs to control costs, and it also intends to allow local manufacturers to cultivate their own capabilities. The development will be driven by the government to promote the transition to the market, and the latest version of the draft request for management of new energy vehicles with dual points clearly conveys this signal."
According to Roland Berger's calculations, to achieve the target of 12% of new energy vehicle integration ratio in 2020, the total sales of electric vehicles in the year will reach approximately 1.6 million vehicles.
Zheng Zheng pointed out that automotive design, parts integration, and supplier management capabilities will become major challenges for local manufacturers. In order to achieve growth and complete the integration goal with the government's back-up, cost control is the key. Only the increase in cost control capabilities and price competitiveness can help local manufacturers maintain a long-term competitive advantage in the international electric vehicle market and achieve “overtakingâ€.
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