Lithium power industry three problems to be solved

At present, China is already the second largest producer of lithium batteries after Japan. The production of lithium batteries in China is still in its infancy. Due to the state's encouragement to develop lithium-ion battery production, many battery factories in China and some powerful enterprise groups have seen lithium. The potential market for batteries has invested heavily in this industry; however, its technical level and equipment level are relatively backward, unable to establish a foothold in the international market, and the company still focuses on domestic sales. The price war facing the traditional 18650 market and the future of the power battery market are uncertain. With the shrinking of the traditional digital product market, the status quo of the lithium battery industry is worrying. Where are the roads?

Market Status 1, 18650 Market (price blocked, market chaos)

In 2011, with the large energy consumption of smart digital terminals, the demand for mobile power was spawned, which led to the growth of cylindrical 18650 batteries. However, after two years of development, the mobile power market is now a mixed bag, with cottages and low-end products flooding the market, and disorderly market conditions.

The world famous 18650 brand Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, LG and so on. Therefore, most domestic manufacturers can only choose to take the low-end or cottage product line, control costs, and occupy the market with prices. The Samsung 18650 is expected to drop its price to US$1 in the fourth quarter of this year. If this is the case, the price will be even lower than the prices of some mid-tier 18650 manufacturers in China, which will add to the domestic manufacturers' problems.

Judging from the first half of the year, the average price of lithium battery cells in China dropped significantly, and the prices of battery cells in the low-end market dropped even more. Low-end market prices are confusing, there have been 1AH less than 4 yuan soft pack batteries, with the intensified market competition and lower gross profit, will inevitably cause the tide of corporate closures, facing the industry to reshuffle the situation.

2, iron and lithium power battery market "overcapacity, the future is uncertain"

According to the statistics of the Senior Industrial Lithium Industry Institute, at the end of 2012, China's power lithium battery companies reached 105, and in 2008 there were only about 10 nationwide. As of May this year, the overall lithium battery production capacity has reached 4 billion ampere. Time. It is believed that most companies are attracted to the field by the concept of new energy vehicles in 2008 or so. Although the state strongly encourages the development of the electric vehicle industry, its complete powertrain technology is not yet mature. In recent years, the scale of the electric vehicle market has still exceeded 10,000 yuan. Vehicles, and power battery companies are expanding too fast, oversupply and idle capacity. Most manufacturers rely on “sideline businesses” to maintain their livelihoods, and they are gradually drifting away from the “dream of electric vehicle battery”.

Not only that, battery companies also bear the risk of returns and refunds. As we all know, the electric vehicle power system is composed of BMS controllers and motor controllers in addition to batteries. However, where quality problems occur, the focus and responsibility are basically placed on the battery. Therefore, enterprises have fallen into many problems such as returns, deductions and quality guarantees, which has caused battery companies to suffer. Example: In 2011, the Universiade electric bus project of Shenzhen Waterma and Wuzhoulong, both sides should be tangled up for the issue of payment.

Coda and Fisker, which used lithium iron phosphate batteries from A123 Company in the United States this year, have fallen one after another. Tesla chose Panasonic's 18650 battery solution to break records in the North American market in the second quarter of 2013. Under such circumstances, we have to ponder over whether it is a mistake to select the lithium iron phosphate battery line that was just adopted for the development of power lithium batteries in preparation for “curve overtaking.” In the end, which technology line to choose is currently facing another dilemma. . The author still believes that although the lithium-iron battery has a lower specific energy, it is still the best choice for electric vehicle batteries.

3. The energy storage market “has a huge market but it is still far away from us”

At present, China's energy storage market is still in its infancy, and its technology is also in the stage of demonstrative engineering. Real industrialization still faces many challenges. Electrochemical energy storage includes flow batteries, lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries, and supercapacitors. Lead-acid batteries still dominate the field in practical applications. Although at the end of 2010, the China Mobile Group Henan Province Company initiated the centralized procurement of lithium iron phosphate batteries and was the first centralized bidding for this product by China Mobile, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate battery has opened up the energy storage market if China Mobile’s existing All ordinary lead-acid batteries are replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the market size will reach 800 billion yuan. However, it is still a long time to enter the industrialization stage in the demonstration stage. The market prospect can be described as “While winter has arrived, it is still far away from spring”.

In addition, high prices have also hindered the large-scale application of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and now facing the further upgrade of other battery technologies, the original performance advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are gradually losing. It is reported that the cycle life of lead-carbon batteries currently used for energy storage projects produced by Nandu Power can reach 2000 cycles, and that of lead-carbon batteries used in the energy storage market is about RMB 1.5/WH, regardless of whether the data is prepared or not. We have given us an alarm, how to reduce costs and improve cost performance are our top priorities.

Market direction 1, electronic cigarette market (huge market, high technical threshold)

Although electronic cigarettes have entered the market since 2004, it is still in its infancy. Goldman Sachs released the “Eight Potential Changes in the World” at the Equity Investment Forum held in August this year. The e-cigarette may change the tobacco industry. As a first area, Goldman Sachs believes that the potential of e-cigarettes will change the status quo of the existing tobacco market and accelerate the decline of traditional cigarette sales. According to incomplete statistics, the sales volume of e-cigarettes was approximately 120 million in 2012, accounting for approximately 0.1% of the total cigarette market. It is assumed that the global e-cigarette demand in 2013 will be 300 million, and will continue to increase by 100% in the following three years. In 2015, the global sales of electronic cigarettes were 1.2 billion, accounting for only 0.38% of the total. In December 2010, the U.S. Federal Court ordered the FDA to stop implementing the regulations prohibiting the import of e-cigarettes from China. The U.S. e-cigarette market has ushered in a great development and the demonstration effect has stimulated the global e-cigarette market. In 2013, there is an opportunity for double demand in the electronic cigarette market, and demand for orders is strong.

At present, there are only a few electronic cigarette battery companies on the scale, so companies can seize this opportunity to enter the electronic cigarette market. However, the quality of its battery is relatively strict, and the battery needs a large current discharge. (Example: The 75300 is a relatively common one used in electronic cigarettes. Its nominal capacity is 90mAh, and the instantaneous current when smoking an electronic cigarette is generally 1.5A. The 75300 battery is equivalent to a discharge current that needs to withstand 16 times the current). High-current discharge is undoubtedly the biggest test for the electronic cigarette battery. If manufacturers can solve this problem, they believe that the electronic cigarette market can occupy a place.

2. Digital Market (Traditional Market Shrinks, Tablet PC Market Growth)

On August 27, Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, stated at the “4th Symposium on Lithium Battery Anode Materials Market” that the global square battery will be reduced from 39% in 2012 to 25.8% in 2016. At the same time, the cylindrical battery will be reduced from 36.4% in 2012 to 22.9% in 2016, which means that by 2016, the global market share of square batteries and cylindrical batteries will shrink by 30%.

A few days ago, foreign media reported that according to news released by the research company IDC, tablet PC sales will soon exceed the personal computer. Based on annual sales, IDC believes that tablet PC sales will exceed PC sales by 2015. Obviously, with the rapid growth of the tablet computer market, the personal computer market has experienced a process from stagnation to negative growth. With the continuous enlargement of product sizes such as tablet PCs, the battery capacity has also risen. On the one hand, more power is needed to support larger screen consumption. On the other hand, tablet computers are positioned to meet consumer mobile and portable entertainment needs. Therefore, battery design focuses on ultra-thin, high-capacity product design, so that the battery products used in tablet computers should have a higher level of technology.

From the above two perspectives, the market and the space for survival still lies in the improvement of technology and the guarantee of quality. The blindness of the cottage route can only make us get closer to the end of the world, and blindly increasing the investment can only drown it. Battery in the ocean!

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