Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, we have experienced economic soaring and ushered in an almost brand-new way of life. However, the shadow of unemployment has enveloped our lives all the time. When we saw the layoffs of more than 20,000 people in the five major industries, A piece of news also refreshed the Internet. This is the crazy layoffs in Southeast Asia. How far are we from unemployment? Under the tide of unemployment, where is the danger for each of us?
Perhaps we were still thinking about not letting Cao Dewang run away last year, and we were still thinking about when a large number of jobs in China were transferred to Southeast Asia by those unscrupulous companies. Southeast Asia also had an accident. In our impression, Southeast Asia is one Relatively economically backward places, where there are cheap cheap labor, just like China at the beginning of reform and opening up, but things are far more than we thought.
The German "Le Monde" reported on the 12th that a report released by the global risk assessment company Velisco Maple on Thursday stated that the continuous improvement of factory automation has triggered a wave of large-scale unemployment in Southeast Asia, and robots are gradually replacing labor.
Southeast Asia has always been called one of the "workbenches of the world", and many low-tech products are produced and exported here. Verisco Maple Garden expert Jonner said that in the next few decades, robot manufacturing will replace many low-tech jobs.
Workers who are unskilled or poorly adaptable may in the future know that they will be exploited and will rob low-paying jobs. This trend is called "modern slavery in Southeast Asia." The sectors most at risk of such slavery include agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and electronics.
Earlier this year, the United Nations International Labor Organization (ILO) stated that in the next 20 years, more than half of the workers in Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines will face the unemployment crisis caused by automation, affecting more than 137 million people. How to prevent workers from being negatively affected by robots is gradually becoming the focus of attention of governments in Southeast Asia and other regions of the world.
It is true that even more than 100 million Southeast Asian workers are facing the crisis of unemployment. For a China that far surpasses Southeast Asia in terms of modernization and automation, our danger may be even more urgent. According to Taylor Pearson in "Future Work" The discussion in the book says that over the past 100 years, social and technological innovations have ushered in the "end of work". Technology, machines, and globalization have made competition in the job market increasingly fierce. This competition has reduced the cost of enterprises. For example, social software like WeChat, Skype, Facebook allows anyone in the world who can access the Internet to get in touch with the world for free, and you are no longer competing for jobs with hundreds of thousands or millions of labor in nearby areas. The market, but the world's population of up to 7 billion.
2. What is the danger behind the tide of unemployment?In the education model that most of us are accustomed to, everyone believes that they are covered by a bell-shaped curve. Whether it is the education we receive or the workplace we face, many people will tell you that only A small number of students can top the top, a small number of students are at the bottom, most people are hovering in a midstream, this is a world of the mean, but with the development of technology, more and more of us are living in an extreme world, technology and global With the development of globalization, middle-income groups are dying out. With the development of technology, the world has become more concentrated, and the extreme world is replacing the golden mean world we are used to. Bill Gates became a billionaire at the age of 31, and Zuckerberg did it at the age of 23.
In China’s long-term educational concept, we have been cultivated to become a habitual turkey thinking. The so-called turkey thinking means that the turkey has been fed by a butcher for 1,000 days. From the day the turkey was born on Thanksgiving, the fire The chickens wake up every day with adequate food and a safe shelter, and people take care and feed them every day. When we are all used to this way of life, it’s Wednesday, November 3, until the turkeys are delivered. The day before the slaughterhouse, it realized that making turkey is actually not good, but the turkey has become fat and lazy and has nowhere to go.
The work of most of us is actually like this. The relatively stable income has caused us to have an illusion about the world of the mean that steadily creates value. We are creating income but not necessarily creating value for the world, or what we create The value may not reach the income we get, so once the company moves to Southeast Asia (similar to Foxconn) and to the United States (similar to Fuyao Glass), then what will you do? If you are still young, it doesn’t matter that you start all over again, but if you have been in a position for ten years or more, when you reach the peak of your income at the age of 40, you need to support your family and repay your loan. When replaced by machines, cheap labor in Southeast Asia and other places, and even young people who just graduated from school, you are the turkey on Thanksgiving. (However, the phenomenon of unloading the grinding and killing the donkey is common in Huawei, ZTE and even various Internet companies.)
Why does this happen?
This is because we are entering a peak employment. As a society, China was far from reaching the peak of employment at the beginning of reform and opening up. During the period from reform and opening up to the end of the 20th century, due to the ultra-high-speed development of the Chinese economy, China has abundant jobs and generous salaries. The Chinese born in the 1970s have become the happiest group of people in China. They avoided the years before the reform and opening up when the economy was underdeveloped. They had higher incomes when wages were rising rapidly, but they enjoyed lower housing prices. , So now that people reach middle age, their status, house, and car are almost there.
However, what about other people, especially those born in the 80s and 90s? Things are far from being as simple as imagined:
First, the rise of communication technology has gradually globalized work. The rise of China relies on cheap labor resources. However, the current situation is that a lot of jobs can actually be solved by crowdsourcing. Maybe the person who helps you solve the problem today is not in your company, or even Not in your city, or even in your country, the labor force in Southeast Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe has become more and more well-trained and easy to contact. The lower wages in China are enough to allow them to live a high level in their home country. In their lives, they are eager for such jobs. Although communication and cultural differences still exist, these boundaries and barriers are becoming increasingly blurred. For example, you live in Beijing and bought goods on JD. However, your customer service staff But in a county in Suqian, the cost is much lower than a customer service in Beijing.
The second is that machines are gradually taking over the work of people. I believe all friends are familiar with the role of computers. Your mobile phone can already have the functions of voice recognition and translation. The appearance of the sweeping robot allows a cleaner to complete the work of the previous ten people, which is similar to automated financial software. The emergence of the original large number of accounting practitioners has become insignificant. Jobs such as administrative assistants, machine operators and assemblers, postal service personnel, bank tellers, and cashiers almost no longer need humans to do. And the original skills are becoming more and more useless. When Alpha Dog defeats almost all Go masters in the world, we must realize that the era when artificial intelligence completely replaces many human jobs is getting closer.
Third, the value of academic qualifications is getting lower and lower. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, the number of graduates from 2010 to 2017 has increased year by year at a year-on-year growth rate of 2%-5%, and the cumulative number of graduates in the past 7 years has reached 57.06 million. In 2018, the number of college graduates nationwide is expected to rise to 8.2 million, a new high in the number of graduates in the past 10 years. I thought that a bachelor’s degree in those years could be called the pride of heaven, but now? Many companies can be said to be "Masters are not as good as dogs, and PhDs are everywhere". Undergraduates don't even have enough entry barriers. Academic qualifications have become a beginning, no matter how high your qualifications are, it is useless.
Faced with the unemployment tide sweeping the world, perhaps we must realize that the problems we face are far more serious than the phenomenon. When we see the news that the elderly also need to actively start their own businesses and the young people want to go to the countryside to start businesses again , We must also realize that this is an increasingly extreme world. In the face of such a world, the things we learn in school and the skills we get at work are actually far from enough.
Are you really ready when the tide of unemployment sweeps through?
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