[Introduction]: The full support of the government, the full support of the people, can help China shine in the field of driverless driving?
Recently, the driverless industry has been raging again. First, General Cruise accepted a $2.25 billion investment from Softbank. Then Waymo invested in a single order of 62,000 Pacific to Fiat-Chrysler (FCA) to expand its driverless fleet by 100 times. .
As a result, the Cruise that complements the short-term funds and the Waymo that makes up for the disadvantages of the car are unstoppable. Compared to the Top 2 of the two driverless industries, the technology gap between Chinese driverless companies is not small.
So, on the unmanned global track, will China be left behind by the United States?
And slow, drone technology has a long way to go from landing to final popularity, and the variables and complexity of this road may far exceed our imagination. It is very likely that China’s sudden emergence in the unmanned field will surprise many people.
Privacy for convenience?Recently, everyone has seen the "Internet Trend Report 2018" released by "The Queen of the Internet". Among them, I wonder if you noticed a very interesting set of data.
Come, let me know how to draw a note: According to market research firm Gfk, Chinese users are more willing to share relevant data such as finance and driving for the benefit of the world, which is 38% in China. , 8 percentage points higher than the second-ranked Mexico, and 25% in the United States.
I think everyone remembers that in March this year, Li Yanhong was vomited because of "the Chinese are willing to use the convenience of privacy exchange." However, if Li Yanhong has a different expression?
For example, according to the "Internet Trend Report of 2018" released by the "Internet Queen", 38% of users in China are willing to share data for the benefit, ranking first in the world..." Well, there will be much less. Perhaps we have to admit that Li Yanhong may have said some big truths.
Gossip, let's talk about unmanned driving today, and the reason for opening the privacy topic is because the Chinese people's relatively open attitude towards privacy is helping the unmanned high-speed development to some extent.
As we all know, data is the nourishment of AI algorithm, and the degree of openness to data privacy determines the difficulty of data collection. In the West, people's trust in data collection technology is generally low, but Chinese people are not as sensitive to data privacy as European and American users, and there are huge users and markets, which can provide data nutrient for unmanned driving. .
Nevertheless, the development and popularization of driverless technology involves various factors. If we look at the unmanned battle between China and the United States from a more systematic perspective, does China have a competitive advantage?
Let's move the coordinates to California on the western Pacific coast of the United States. This sunny place is home to almost all of the world's most famous driverless companies. If you want to test in California, companies must regularly submit test data to the government, and through this data we can look at the development of these companies' driverless technology.
According to data released by the California DMV (Vehicle Authority) in February this year, Baidu's unmanned vehicles require manual intervention for an average of 41 miles, while Waymo's unmanned vehicles require manual takeovers for every 5,596 miles.
Since taking the California driverless test license, Baidu's unmanned vehicles have traveled a total of 1,971.7 miles between October 2016 and November 2017, with 48 manual interventions; Waymo unmanned vehicles from December 2016 to 2017. In November, 352,544.6 miles were traveled and the number of manual interventions was 65.
Honestly, Baidu's data is really not very good looking. A little disappointed?
Don't worry, the development and landing of driverless driving is far from being technologically advanced and the data is so beautiful. The talents and funds involved, policies and regulations, public opinion environment and other factors are also crucial.
Interestingly, although Baidu's performance makes us unable to boast, but recently, foreign media such as QUARTZ, Bloomberg, Forbes, Internet of Business have given a variety of analysis, that China is the future of the driverless market. Winner.
In this regard, do you have a face in front of the mobile phone screen? Why do they say this? Let's not be arrogant, don't be too proud, follow the steps of understanding the notes, objectively to see if these analyses are pertinent.
Extensive public opinion baseLet's listen to the voices of the people first.
In February of this year, a report released by German technical service company TÃœV Rheinland showed that driverless driving has a broader public opinion base in China, mainly because Chinese people are more convinced of this technology and they are more willing to upload themselves than Americans. The data.
For example, 63% of Chinese respondents believe that driverless driving can improve safety, while only 34% of US respondents think so; 71% of Chinese respondents are willing to provide data for enjoying new services, and only 42 % of US respondents are willing to do this...
Why are the attitudes of consumers in the two countries so unattended to be so different? In addition to the frequent safety and ethical discussions caused by frequent accidents of unmanned vehicles such as Uber and Tesla, perhaps the entrenched automobile culture of the United States can also explain some problem.
As a “country on wheels,†more than 3.5 million people in the United States drive for a living, and in many states, drivers are the most common occupation. In 2015, China’s car ownership reached 172 million, while the United States, with a population of only one-quarter of China, had 264 million registered vehicles.
Although unmanned companies are clamoring for “the popularity of driverless technology will reduce the rate of car accidentsâ€, from a commercial perspective, de-driverization to reduce operating costs is the ultimate goal of these companies.
Let's take a 24-hour electric car in the United States: According to Carlos Ghosn, chairman of Nissan Motors, charging for such a car costs $250/month; rent is about $300-500/month; because of this car For all-weather driving, three drivers are required and a total of $15,000 is paid each month.
Careful calculation of this cost, it is obvious that the driver's income accounted for the majority of the operating costs of an electric car. The popularity of driverless driving will undoubtedly save the company an effective part of this cost. Of course, this also means that a large number of drivers will face the dilemma of unemployment.
Therefore, unmanned technology can potentially be resisted by some drivers in the United States.
In fact, the popularity of driverless technology in China is not unexpected, because the Chinese have always been highly open to new technologies. In the eyes of the US media, China has surpassed Western countries in many technical fields.
For example, in China, smartphones are almost ubiquitous, and services such as e-commerce and instant delivery in China are ridiculously global. At the same time, many overseas tourists are surprised that many stores in China can pay without cash and have a car in China. Sharing bikes is even more reliable than taxis.
Undoubtedly, the landing and popularity of driverless technology depends to a large extent on the public's trust in driverless technology, unmanned companies, and government regulatory capabilities.
Therefore, China's extensive public opinion base and public support for unmanned driving have created a good public opinion environment for the smooth implementation of this technology. As a result, Chinese companies and governments will encounter far less resistance in promoting relevant projects and introducing relevant policies than Western countries.
China has money and people"Funding" is a hurdle that can't be driven by unmanned driving. From technology development and testing to landing, no one needs huge financial support. For example, in driverless cars, laser radar is the most expensive component, see the picture below:
According to Nomura, the average cost of laser radar can be reduced to less than $1,000 by 2022.
This has to mention that Quanergy Systems Inc., a very low-profile laser radar manufacturer in Silicon Valley, has produced a small solid-state laser radar that costs less than $1,000 and gross profit of more than 50%, while R&D spending accounts for almost any revenue. 70%. However, at this point, they have spent more than 30 years.
According to people familiar with the matter, Chinese investors may appear in Quanergy's next round of financing and are likely to become important shareholders.
Bloomberg reminded investors that they should focus on the huge investments of Chinese companies such as BAT in the driverless sector, which are making up for China's development gap in this area.
In addition, Bloomberg believes that the construction of unmanned infrastructure requires far more money than many governments are willing to commit, with the exception of China.
In China, technology companies have almost no shortage of venture capital. China's support for start-ups is also approaching the United States. At the same time, China's R&D investment is gradually approaching the United States.
Of course, in addition to abundant financial strength, China also has a huge pool of talent.
According to the World Economic Forum, China graduates twice as many as the United States each year, while STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) graduates exceed 4.7 million, far better than India (2.6 million) and the United States (568,000).
At the same time, the Chinese government and many major universities in the country are actively exploring top professors around the world, and China's booming education is constantly emphasizing creativity and innovation. Now, the phenomenon of the loss of Chinese science and technology talents to the West has been much lighter than in the past.
Strong government will"As long as China wants to get up quickly, it can do it!" In the eyes of the US media, the efficiency and execution of the Chinese government is amazing.
In the West, when it comes to setting up pilot areas and providing infrastructure for driverless cars, the government often faces various controversies and obstacles inherent in democratic procedures. If China wants to build subways or high-speed rails, the government can quickly resettle the masses. Provide timely compensation.
For example, the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games has almost astounded the world, and the 2010 New Delhi Commonwealth Games in India and the 2016 Olympic Games in Brazil are full of problems.
Finally, in Forbes's view, the most important thing is that China likes to be the biggest and strongest, which is closely related to China's revival dream. Therefore, as long as China is willing, it will stand out in the field of unmanned driving.
ConclusionThe above analysis is not unreasonable, but the gap between China's driverless technology and the West is also real. However, we also believe that with the full promotion of the government and the support of the whole people, China's driverless driving will have a place in the future global market.
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