C114 News May 21 (Zhang Hailong) Today, China Mobile announced its operating data for April this year: in the mobile business, the net increase in customers was 1.12 million, the lowest value in 22 months; the number of 4G users decreased by 2.427 million in the month. 6.69318 billion. In terms of fixed-line business, the number of net customers increased was 3.178 million. The cumulative net increase for the year was 14.411 million, with a total of 127 million.
The net decrease was 2.427 million. This is the first time in more than four years that China Mobile has experienced negative growth in the 4G market. In February 2014, China Mobile began to disclose the monthly growth of 4G users separately; in the following years, China Mobile has been steadily advancing in the 4G market.
In this regard, some insiders pointed out that although China Mobile is still the largest in the overall 4G business, 4G users accounted for more than 63% (as of March 2018); but perhaps from this month, the domestic 4G market growth The pattern may change in nature. [Additional reading: China Telecom added 5.86 million 4G users in the month, China Unicom net added 4G users 4.062 million in the month]
Eye-catching "negative growth"
Since 2013, China Mobile's efforts on 4G have begun to receive feedback from the market; in February 2014, China Mobile began to disclose the monthly growth of 4G users separately.
In 2014, China Mobile's average monthly net increase of 4G users was about 8.06 million. In 2015 and 2016, China Mobile's 4G subscriber growth ushered in a peak period. In 2015, the average monthly net increase was 18.5 million 4G subscribers. In 2016, the average monthly net increase was 18.58 million. Especially in December 2016, China Mobile posted a net increase of 4,250,000 4G subscribers per month, setting a record for the three operators to increase their net 4G subscribers in a single month.
With the gradual increase of 4G user penetration rate, after entering 2017, China Mobile's 4G subscriber growth pace began to slow down, and the monthly average net increase level has dropped to 9.539 million. In 2018, the growth pace of China Mobile's 4G subscribers further slowed down. In the first quarter of 2018, China Mobile added a net increase of 22.24 million 4G subscribers, with an average monthly increase of 7.431 million.
The growth of 4G users is slow, which is a very reasonable phenomenon: First, as the market saturation increases, new users are decreasing. Secondly, the rapid migration of 2G/3G users to 4G users has been basically completed, and the subsequent migration process is certain. It will slow down and the migration cost will also increase. Relevant data show that as of the end of March this year, the penetration rates of 4G users of China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom were 74.76%, 75.48% and 66.07% respectively. However, this is a common problem faced by all operators. China Mobile’s “negative growth†this time may be affected by fierce market competition in addition to the industry environment.
Fierce market competition
Speaking of competition, I have to mention the Wangka of China Unicom.
The network speed is fast, unlimited traffic, and cheap. It is estimated that the first impression of many people is Wangka, not the standard 4G package of the three major operators. At present, the number of Wangka users has exceeded 100 million. This is undoubtedly a great success for Wangka, which was officially launched in October 2016, but it will undoubtedly bring great threats and pressure to other operators.
Wang Ka's lethality is not only reflected in the number of users, but also reflected in the DOU. As of the end of last year, China Mobile's 4G user DOU was 1.76GB, far less than China Unicom's 4.4GB and China Telecom's 3.5GB.
For China Mobile, this is indeed a dilemma. If you follow up on a large scale, it will inevitably cause the ARPU to decline, and the network will also face tremendous pressure; but if you don't follow up, it may cause user loss.
In order to change the market conditions, China Mobile launched a 68-yuan national unlimited traffic package, further reducing its own tariff threshold to attract users. In addition, a few days ago, China Mobile and Tencent jointly launched an Internet mobile phone card called WeSim. After the discount, it only costs 38 yuan/month. The first month is also free. It has unlimited national traffic (more than 40GB will be limited) and 500 minutes nationwide. Call, international roaming Internet minimum 2.9 yuan / day. It can be seen that China Mobile has begun to make corresponding adjustments after seeing the success of Wangka and low-priced packages and feeling the pressure of development.
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