In order to achieve breakthroughs in essence, the parts of industrial robots in China need to pay more patience and investment, especially the speed reducer. The bigger the expectation, the greater the pressure, and the prospects are considerable. At the same time, China's industrial robotics talents are also very scarce. These issues need to be improved in the future development time and space. It seems that there is a long journey ahead waiting for us.
Zhang Jie: The domestic speed reducer has a long way to break through and need to wait patiently.
Speaking of the core components of the robot, the key part of the reducer, the heroes of the domestic robot core components in the rivers and lakes have always been "heroic short-lived", indeed in the "Chinese wisdom", "Belt and Road" inspired, many of this In terms of controlling costs, solving local labor, and improving the country's soft power, Chinese companies in the industry hope to create a domestic robot that is independently developed by domestic companies. This is a "Chinese dream" about manufacturing, or a small part of the automation industry that highlights the style of a big country. However, it is really fascinating to "set aside four thousand".
The reducer in the robot industry in China has always been valued as a core component, and the core component market in today's world is monopolized by foreign companies. Domestic robots are always facing this problem at this stage, and the robot reducer market is highly monopolized. In the popularization period, domestic reducers cannot achieve full import substitution. The reducer is used to precisely control the movement of the robot and transmit more torque. Divided into two types, the RV reducer installed in the heavy load position such as the base, the boom and the shoulder, and the harmonic reducer installed in the light load position such as the arm, wrist or hand. The RV reducer is monopolized by Nabtesco, Japan, and the harmonic reducer Japan Hamernaco has an absolute advantage.
The structure of the harmonic reducer is relatively simple. There are only three basic components, and the patent of Hamernaco has already expired. The difference between the domestic harmonic reducer and foreign countries is not large. Suzhou Green's harmonic reducer has been widely used in domestic robots.
In terms of market size, according to the 2020 robotic capacity of 800,000 units, that is, an increase of about 600,000 units, a multi-joint industrial robot requires 4-6 speed reducers according to the number of axes, taking a median of 5, Then you need 3 million speed reducers. It is optimistic that domestic enterprises will get 50% of the market share. The calculation of a single reducer of 4,000 yuan will be 6 billion yuan, and the replacement demand will not exceed 7 billion yuan.
Therefore, our domestic reducer companies have more value to visit. Mr. Zhang Jie from Zhejiang Laifu Harmonic Reducer Co., Ltd. has received us. He is a very young entrepreneur. To some extent, he is more like a master. The researchers of the technology began to talk fluently, talking about the changes in the speed reducer market and industry anecdotes, such as the number of Jane. And the idea conversion is very fast. The price range, market share, application industry and supporting peripheral products of the domestic reducer can all be listed in a very detailed and clear context. What can be done and what will be done in the future. Nothing is afraid of doing anything. He talks very calmly. There seems to be no traditional thinking burden in the industry.
At present, the annual sales volume of industrial robots in the Chinese market is about 70,000 units. However, this market share cannot be occupied by domestic harmonic reducers. Of course, the situation of RV reducers together is not realistic. According to robots, the work in the factory is 16 per day. In terms of hours, the accuracy life of domestic ontologies robots is difficult to reach 2 years. At this time, there will be reasons for the robot body manufacturer to find the accuracy loss of the body robot. There are many reasons for this, and there may be problems with the servo motor, the control system and the speed reducer. Most body manufacturers consider it to be a problem caused by the wear of harmonic reducers. Because the use of more than 10,000 years of use in 2 years, the harmonic reducer will wear more or less, which can not be avoided. This is also the problem that the domestic reducer manufacturers have been trying to overcome, to overcome the life of the harmonic reducer, which is also the problem that the Japanese harmonicdrive company has been studying. The characteristics of the harmonic reducer are large in reduction ratio and large in rigidity. The difference between us and foreign reducers is that the foreign gearboxes have realized lightweight materials. The new materials they use are alloys of three metal materials, which are difficult to analyze. The steel reducer for domestic reducers is essentially steel. The density of the metal does not change. Even if the hole is punched, the weight will not change much. The core components of the robot are lightweight, and foreign countries have come before us. Not all materials are available, foreign reducer manufacturers have detailed test data for transmission efficiency, load test, loss, etc. as the basis for research and development, this can be seen from the sample book of Japan hd company, their research and development strength and technology accumulation This is the time that our domestic reducer manufacturers need to accumulate, and it can be done simply by investing in equipment. Although there are differences in precision, materials, and technology compared with foreign reducers. However, in the field of non-standard machinery, the domestic harmonic reducer is still relatively stable. This is still very gratifying.
What are the perceptions of the domestic reducer market that can be shared with us?
Zhang Jie: The domestic speed reducer market is very big. I personally know more about the domestic harmonic reducer market. There are very many manufacturers engaged in harmonic reducers in China, and there are currently no fewer than 40 companies involved in the production of harmonic reducers. There are about five companies that can produce harmonic reducers in batches. Green is the domestically recognized leading manufacturer of harmonic reducers. His sales volume is the largest in China and the market share is also the highest. The next few companies are similar. Harmonic reducer is a key component of the robot. It can be said that harmonic reducer is indispensable in small load and lightweight robot. This is also the reason why the harmonic reducer is very big in the future market. So many companies are willing to invest heavily in the cause of this field. From my point of view, our biggest competitor is HarmonicDrive, whose technical strength, financial strength and brand awareness are very high. In the future, harmonic reducers will inevitably have an increasingly cheap "price war" process. Perhaps many people now believe that the profits of domestic harmonic reducer manufacturers are very rich, but it is not. First of all, because dozens of companies have entered this field, price competition is indispensable. In addition, harmonic reducers require high R&D investment and equipment investment, so the fixed cost is not low. The demand for domestic harmonic reducers is an annual demand. The number of customers on the single model is already a very large number of customers. However, the large orders of Japan HD (Hamenaco) are tens of thousands of single models. So the cost of HD (Hamonaco) will be much lower than ours. In addition, due to the domestic market environment, the competition for future harmonic reducers will become increasingly fierce.
In view of the fact that the core components of the robot industry are currently dependent on imports, the message of China's intelligent manufacturing is so clear to the “mass entrepreneurship, innovationâ€, what are the actions of our domestic robot core components? In the future 3-5 plan, what are the core components that catch up with foreign brands?
Zhang Jie: For the harmonic reducer, we have selected some sub-divisions for in-depth research and development. We hope to provide non-standard customized services for customers who cannot use standard products in addition to conventional standardized products. By splitting the robots of the four major families of robots, it can be found that the products that HD (Hamonaco) gave them are all custom-made. In addition, the price of onto-body robots has been declining in recent years, and we are also providing cost reduction for our robot customers. s solution. The trend of integration of motors and harmonic reducers is also very obvious.
In the future, the biggest possibility of domestically produced reducers over foreign brands is cost performance. In many fields, customers do not need to use such high-performance products. In these fields, they will be the main battlefield for domestic speed reducers. For high-end areas, in the next 3-5 years, few domestic companies may be able to compete with international brands.
What are the successful experiences of Zhejiang Laifu and what is the biggest support in this field? There are material conditions, support for objective conditions, and some spiritual aspects. Can you share them with us?
Zhang Jie: The success experience can't be said, we can only say that we need to persist. In short, we have entered the field of harmonic reducers, and we hope to make him better and stronger. The biggest support for us is that our customers have been supporting our R&D and supporting our development. They watched us not do anything from the original, and now the products basically realize batch production, and then the product quality is gradually stable. We are very grateful to our customers for their support. In particular, there are several loyal customers who believe that we can smash the problem of harmonic retarders, and we will certainly live up to their hopes for us.
Editor's Note: In order to achieve breakthroughs in essence, the parts of industrial robots in China need to pay more patience and investment, especially the speed reducer. The bigger the expectation, the greater the pressure, and the prospect is considerable. At the same time, China's industrial robotics talents are also very scarce. These issues need to be improved in the future development time and space. It seems that there is a long journey ahead waiting for us.
(Original title: Analysis of the long journey of the domestic reducer - Interview with Zhejiang Laifu Harmonic Transmission Co., Ltd. Zhang Jie)
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