The high growth in the past few years, in addition to the rapid growth of sales and corporate performance, is also accompanied by market concerns about the ceiling of the industry. This concern is fully reflected in the low valuation of home appliances. Compared with developed countries, domestic sales of air conditioners and washing machines still have 50% room for growth, but neither investors nor household appliances companies will be satisfied with this, and must seek to double the growth caused by quality upgrades.
The quality upgrade trend is now available or has policy support. "Product" represents external product structure and product innovation, and "Quality" represents the connotation of quality, service, and energy efficiency. The trend of quality upgrade appears with the increase of income and the replacement of home appliances, and will evolve in depth. The construction of home appliances energy-saving and recycling system is an important part of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for energy-saving and emission reduction. Energy-saving subsidies and old-for-new policies are expected to continue to be implemented. Based on robust sales, quality upgrades, cost reductions and policy support, the appliance industry maintained its "overweight" rating.
Appliance industry from heavy volume to quality upgrade
From January to September this year, the high level of production and sales in the home appliance industry is in line with expectations. The growth rate of shipments in the second half of the year was significantly lower than that in the first half of the year, mainly due to the negative impact of inflation, real estate, weather and overseas factors.
Inflation affects consumer confidence and affects retail sales of small household appliances in the second and third quarters. The decline in the sales of existing and second-hand housing has a direct impact on the demand for home appliances this year, but the number of rooms to be delivered is relatively large, and the overall amount of housing delivery should be increased. The demand for futures investment will slightly affect the demand for home appliances. From July to August, the weather was cool and there was more rainy weather, which slightly affected the retail of household appliances, especially air-conditioning. For the cold air-conditioning shipments to form a certain pressure, but still the best growth in white. The European debt crisis exceeded expectations and affected exports to Europe and the United States in the second half of the year. In September, the exports of air-conditioner refrigerators all dropped year-on-year, and orders for export of small household appliances were also affected. Only lighting exports recovered. It is estimated that the growth rate of domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines this year will be 21%, 14%, and 10% respectively, and LCD TVs will be 10%-15%.
The high growth in the past few years, in addition to the rapid growth of sales scale and corporate performance, is accompanied by market concerns about the ceiling of the industry. This concern is fully reflected in the low valuation of home appliances. Compared with developed countries, domestic sales of air conditioners and washing machines still have more than 50% growth, but neither investors nor household appliances will be satisfied with such a space, and must seek to double the quality upgrade. increase.
Although sales have yet to see ceilings, the growth model of the home appliance industry is gradually shifting from crude volume to quality upgrades. This will give the industry sales revenue more than double the growth. The quality upgrade model is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth, which has changed the investment logic that was mainly supported by sales growth. Under the quality upgrade model, industry sales are the basis, and the competition between "goods" and "quality" is the key, focusing on improving the competitive structure, upgrading product structure, and upgrading pricing power. Ultimately, it will fall on the company's revenue and performance growth.
White sales continue to grow steadily next year
According to the sub-regional research framework, we come to the forecast of domestic sales growth of Baidu next year.
Air ice washing domestic sales increased by 9%, 3% and 3% respectively. This prediction corresponds to a relatively low real estate transaction volume and urban sales growth expectation. At the same time, the sales of ice-washing in the pilot rural areas have also dropped significantly. It should be said that the forecast is more cautious and stronger.
Domestic sales of LCD TVs will increase by 5%-10% year-on-year. The retail of town household appliances and towns is not very optimistic. Small household appliances can expect 15%-20% growth under category expansion. The 50% 20% compound growth of energy-saving lamps has policy support and LED lighting will grow faster.
Considering the increase in inventory of air-conditioning channels, actual sales this year will be slightly lower than that of shipments. Therefore, the growth rate of shipments for next year may be slightly lower than our expected domestic sales growth rate; however, channel inventory still has a tendency to continue to magnify, we believe air-conditioning will be next year. Domestic sales growth should be between 6% and 10%.
In terms of exports, the economic situation in Europe is still not optimistic and Japanese home appliance shipments have also declined. From the extreme situation of 2008-2009, it is possible that the fourth quarter of the year, white electricity exports to Europe and the United States will decline, to narrow the decline next year, regained better growth in the second half of next year. However, if we repeat the previous round of financial crisis, we will find that, although export revenue will decline, but the cost reduction will bring about a substantial increase in gross profit margin, gross profit contribution and net profit are good.
Maintain industry "overweight" rating
The high sales growth of the home appliance segment in the first half of the year boosted the market performance, with the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, the sector’s corrections ranked 13 out of the 23 SW industry, which was mainly due to the slowdown in sales growth since the third quarter, and even monthly declines; and expectations for the slowdown in sales growth in the industry in the future.
Once again, we stress that the quality upgrade model is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth, which has changed the investment logic that was mainly supported by sales growth. Under the quality upgrade model, industry sales are the basis, and the competition between "goods" and "quality" is the key, focusing on improving the competitive structure, upgrading product structure, and upgrading pricing power. Ultimately, it will fall on the company's revenue and performance growth.
We maintain the overweight rating of the home appliance industry next year. Reasons: 1. Although the sales growth of the industry slowed down, it remained definite and sound. 2. The quality upgrade will bring about the improvement of business quality. This is the main investment logic under the new development model. 3. The decrease in cost will make the increase in profitability more certain next year. 4. The valuation level is still very low. 5. If under the framework of energy-saving and emission reduction, the policy of household appliances such as old-for-new ones that promote quality upgrading will continue, policy investment opportunities can also be expected.
From the point of view of investment timing, we are more optimistic about the opportunities in the second half of next year. Reasons: First of all, "quality upgrades" need to be confirmed by mid-year reports. Our “product†and “quality†upgrade focused on the soundness and profitability of leading companies, and the mid-year report is a very important node. Second, confidence in sales stability is expected to recover in the second half of the year.
In the fourth quarter of this year, white goods shipments are relatively sluggish, and it is very likely that they will bottom out. However, facing a higher base in the first half of next year, sales may recover but it is difficult to achieve significant growth. The market’s confidence in the robustness of home appliance sales is expected to increase with the second half of the year. Speed ​​up and recover. Finally, the "sky" is expected to be confirmed by the summer weather. If you do not repeat this year's cool summer next year, which will help air-conditioning inventory to digest, this will be the biggest external factor affecting air-conditioning sales next year.
The quality upgrade trend is now available or has policy support. "Product" represents external product structure and product innovation, and "Quality" represents the connotation of quality, service, and energy efficiency. The trend of quality upgrade appears with the increase of income and the replacement of home appliances, and will evolve in depth. The construction of home appliances energy-saving and recycling system is an important part of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for energy-saving and emission reduction. Energy-saving subsidies and old-for-new policies are expected to continue to be implemented. Based on robust sales, quality upgrades, cost reductions and policy support, the appliance industry maintained its "overweight" rating.
Appliance industry from heavy volume to quality upgrade
From January to September this year, the high level of production and sales in the home appliance industry is in line with expectations. The growth rate of shipments in the second half of the year was significantly lower than that in the first half of the year, mainly due to the negative impact of inflation, real estate, weather and overseas factors.
Inflation affects consumer confidence and affects retail sales of small household appliances in the second and third quarters. The decline in the sales of existing and second-hand housing has a direct impact on the demand for home appliances this year, but the number of rooms to be delivered is relatively large, and the overall amount of housing delivery should be increased. The demand for futures investment will slightly affect the demand for home appliances. From July to August, the weather was cool and there was more rainy weather, which slightly affected the retail of household appliances, especially air-conditioning. For the cold air-conditioning shipments to form a certain pressure, but still the best growth in white. The European debt crisis exceeded expectations and affected exports to Europe and the United States in the second half of the year. In September, the exports of air-conditioner refrigerators all dropped year-on-year, and orders for export of small household appliances were also affected. Only lighting exports recovered. It is estimated that the growth rate of domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines this year will be 21%, 14%, and 10% respectively, and LCD TVs will be 10%-15%.
The high growth in the past few years, in addition to the rapid growth of sales scale and corporate performance, is accompanied by market concerns about the ceiling of the industry. This concern is fully reflected in the low valuation of home appliances. Compared with developed countries, domestic sales of air conditioners and washing machines still have more than 50% growth, but neither investors nor household appliances will be satisfied with such a space, and must seek to double the quality upgrade. increase.
Although sales have yet to see ceilings, the growth model of the home appliance industry is gradually shifting from crude volume to quality upgrades. This will give the industry sales revenue more than double the growth. The quality upgrade model is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth, which has changed the investment logic that was mainly supported by sales growth. Under the quality upgrade model, industry sales are the basis, and the competition between "goods" and "quality" is the key, focusing on improving the competitive structure, upgrading product structure, and upgrading pricing power. Ultimately, it will fall on the company's revenue and performance growth.
White sales continue to grow steadily next year
According to the sub-regional research framework, we come to the forecast of domestic sales growth of Baidu next year.
Air ice washing domestic sales increased by 9%, 3% and 3% respectively. This prediction corresponds to a relatively low real estate transaction volume and urban sales growth expectation. At the same time, the sales of ice-washing in the pilot rural areas have also dropped significantly. It should be said that the forecast is more cautious and stronger.
Domestic sales of LCD TVs will increase by 5%-10% year-on-year. The retail of town household appliances and towns is not very optimistic. Small household appliances can expect 15%-20% growth under category expansion. The 50% 20% compound growth of energy-saving lamps has policy support and LED lighting will grow faster.
Considering the increase in inventory of air-conditioning channels, actual sales this year will be slightly lower than that of shipments. Therefore, the growth rate of shipments for next year may be slightly lower than our expected domestic sales growth rate; however, channel inventory still has a tendency to continue to magnify, we believe air-conditioning will be next year. Domestic sales growth should be between 6% and 10%.
In terms of exports, the economic situation in Europe is still not optimistic and Japanese home appliance shipments have also declined. From the extreme situation of 2008-2009, it is possible that the fourth quarter of the year, white electricity exports to Europe and the United States will decline, to narrow the decline next year, regained better growth in the second half of next year. However, if we repeat the previous round of financial crisis, we will find that, although export revenue will decline, but the cost reduction will bring about a substantial increase in gross profit margin, gross profit contribution and net profit are good.
Maintain industry "overweight" rating
The high sales growth of the home appliance segment in the first half of the year boosted the market performance, with the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, the sector’s corrections ranked 13 out of the 23 SW industry, which was mainly due to the slowdown in sales growth since the third quarter, and even monthly declines; and expectations for the slowdown in sales growth in the industry in the future.
Once again, we stress that the quality upgrade model is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth, which has changed the investment logic that was mainly supported by sales growth. Under the quality upgrade model, industry sales are the basis, and the competition between "goods" and "quality" is the key, focusing on improving the competitive structure, upgrading product structure, and upgrading pricing power. Ultimately, it will fall on the company's revenue and performance growth.
We maintain the overweight rating of the home appliance industry next year. Reasons: 1. Although the sales growth of the industry slowed down, it remained definite and sound. 2. The quality upgrade will bring about the improvement of business quality. This is the main investment logic under the new development model. 3. The decrease in cost will make the increase in profitability more certain next year. 4. The valuation level is still very low. 5. If under the framework of energy-saving and emission reduction, the policy of household appliances such as old-for-new ones that promote quality upgrading will continue, policy investment opportunities can also be expected.
From the point of view of investment timing, we are more optimistic about the opportunities in the second half of next year. Reasons: First of all, "quality upgrades" need to be confirmed by mid-year reports. Our “product†and “quality†upgrade focused on the soundness and profitability of leading companies, and the mid-year report is a very important node. Second, confidence in sales stability is expected to recover in the second half of the year.
In the fourth quarter of this year, white goods shipments are relatively sluggish, and it is very likely that they will bottom out. However, facing a higher base in the first half of next year, sales may recover but it is difficult to achieve significant growth. The market’s confidence in the robustness of home appliance sales is expected to increase with the second half of the year. Speed ​​up and recover. Finally, the "sky" is expected to be confirmed by the summer weather. If you do not repeat this year's cool summer next year, which will help air-conditioning inventory to digest, this will be the biggest external factor affecting air-conditioning sales next year.
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