After the semiconductor industry emerged from the recession, 2010 is destined to be a record year for the industry. Recently, the market has predicted that sales revenue will increase by 30% this year, and sales and shipments will hit a record high. In addition, SEMI World Fab Forecast expects semiconductor fabs to grow by 117% this year, exceeding the 2008 level. These are exciting news, but there is one more eye-catching highlight than the semiconductor market as a whole: LED.
LED and solid-state lighting are two bright spots in the market, attracting a lot of attention and investment. Driven by the LED-backlit LCD display and the potentially huge amount of general-purpose lighting, LED demand will break out in the next few years. The tight supply and huge potential of the market have caused many manufacturing plants and capacity plans to suddenly emerge on a global scale.
New factory number exceeds other fields
According to the SEMI Opto/LED Fab Watch report, there were 85 professional LED factories (including epitaxy and chips) in the world in 2009. This year this number will grow to 94. Judging from the plans announced by the current manufacturers, at least 11 new plants will be launched next year.
Geographically, Taiwan has the largest number of LED factories. However, most new plants are found in mainland China. The main reason is that some local governments subsidize the procurement of MOCVD equipment, and there are many cases of direct investment in new factories. It is worth noting that most of these LED factories are invested by Taiwan LED manufacturers.
Capacity shows double-digit growth
According to our current forecast, global LED production capacity will increase by 33% this year, and will increase by 27% next year, reaching 1.392 million pieces per month (equivalent to 4-inch film). Its growth rate greatly exceeds the overall capacity growth of semiconductors.
In these capital expenditures, equipment spending will nearly triple, from $480 million in 2009 to $1.3 billion in 2010, a record high. This is mainly due to the rapid rise of LED backlight applications. Investment kinetics are expected to continue in 2011 and will exceed $1.3 billion this year.
Will LEDs be oversupplied?
Radical investment always leads to oversupply concerns and market uncertainty, and the LED market is no exception. With all new capacity coming online, end market demand must be quickly followed. On the one hand, there are reports that the supply of equipment and materials will be limited this year, such as shortage of sapphire substrates and extended MOCVD delivery, so capacity growth may be affected. On the other hand, demand development from general lighting seems to be faster than expected. Combining these two points, market supply and demand is likely to be balanced.
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