During the “11th Five-Year Plan†period, China’s power industry’s ability to support economic and social development has been significantly enhanced, its power supply structure and layout have been further optimized, and the level of power technology equipment and capabilities for independent innovation have improved significantly.
At the same time, there are still some deep-seated problems in the development of the power industry. The unified planning of the power industry needs to be strengthened urgently. The scientific and reasonable electricity pricing mechanism has not yet been formed. The sustainable development capacity of power companies is weak, and the proportion of existing green power generation is far from the future development goals. The ability of resource allocation cannot meet the needs of economic and social development, the capacity for scientific and technological innovation needs to be improved, and market-oriented reform needs to be deepened.
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†research report issued by the China Electricity Council, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the development direction of China’s power industry will be driven by scientific and technological innovation, and will be based on the transformation of power development methods. Adhere to saving priority, give priority to the development of hydropower, optimize the development of coal-fired electricity, vigorously develop nuclear power, actively promote new energy generation, moderately develop centralized natural gas power generation, develop distributed generation according to local conditions, accelerate the construction of a strong smart grid, drive the development of the equipment industry, and promote green harmony development of.
First, the power demand: "12th Five-Year" demand average annual growth of 7.5% to 9.5%
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†research report of the “Power Industry†pointed out that factors such as the adjustment of the national economy and its development stage, adjustment of economic structure and economic layout, demand for primary energy, development of key industries, consumption of electricity for residents, demand side management, and energy conservation should be considered. Using a variety of power demand forecasting methods, it is estimated that by 2015, the total electricity consumption in the society will reach 5.99 trillion to 6.57 trillion kwh. The average annual growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan will be 7.5% to 9.5%. The reference standard for the ITU reference project is 6.27 trillion kWh with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%; the maximum load is 994 million to 1.090 billion kilowatts, and the average annual growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 8.6% to 10.6%. The benchmark scheme recommends 1.04 billion kilowatts. , an average annual increase of 9.6%.
In 2020, the whole society will use 7.85 trillion to 8.56 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an average annual increase of 4.6% to 6.4% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and a benchmark program of 8.20 trillion kwh, an average annual increase of 5.5%; The maximum load reaches 1.317 billion to 1.436 billion kilowatts, and the average annual growth rate for the “13th Five-Year Plan†is 4.8% to 6.7%. The benchmark scheme recommends 1.377 billion kilowatts, an average annual increase of 5.8%.
The coefficient of power flexibility is 0.99 for the "12th Five-Year Plan" period and 0.85 for the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The power demand growth in the western region is higher than that in the eastern region.
II. Planning Objectives: The installed capacity in 2015 will reach 1.437 billion kilowatts in 2015. The target of the plan is that the installed capacity of power generation in the country will reach 1.437 billion kilowatts, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%. Among them, 286 million kilowatts of hydropower, 41 million kilowatts of pumped storage, and coal It has 933 million kilowatts of electricity, 43 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 30 million kilowatts of gas power, 100 million kilowatts of wind power, 2 million kilowatts of solar power, and biomass power generation and other 3 million kilowatts. The country’s 110 kV and above lines reached 1.33 million kilometers, with a capacity of 5.6 billion kVA. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach 474 million kilowatts, accounting for 33% of the total installed capacity, which is 6.3 percentage points higher than that of 2010; non-fossil energy generation will be around 1.52 trillion kwh, accounting for 24.1 percent of the total generating capacity. %, an increase of 3% compared with 2010; non-fossil energy generation can replace fossil energy 500 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 11.9% of primary energy consumption.
Planning goals for 2020: The country's installed power generation capacity will reach approximately 1.885 billion kilowatts, an average annual increase of 5.6%. Among them, hydropower is 330 million kilowatts, pumped storage is 60 million kilowatts, coal power is 1.16 billion kilowatts, nuclear power is 90 million kilowatts, gas power is 40 million kilowatts, wind power is 180 million kilowatts, solar power is 20 million kilowatts, biomass, tides, geothermal, etc. 500 Ten thousand kilowatts. The country’s 110 kV and above lines reached 1.76 million kilometers, with a transformation capacity of 7.9 billion kVA. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach 685 million kilowatts, accounting for 36.3% of the total installed capacity, up 3.3 percentage points over 2015; non-fossil energy generation will be around 2.2 trillion kwh, accounting for 26.9 percent of the total generating capacity. %, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from 2015; Non-fossil energy generation can replace fossil fuels of 700 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 14.1% of primary energy consumption.
Through the development of non-fossil energy sources and reduction of coal consumption and line losses, compared with 2010, the electricity industry in 2015 will save 264 million tons of standard coal annually, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 655 million tons, and reduce sulfur dioxide by 5.65 million tons, reducing nitrogen emissions. 2.48 million tons of oxides; compared with 2015, the power industry in 2020 will save 273 million tons of standard coal, 670 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 5.94 million tons of sulfur dioxide emissions, and 2.56 million tons of nitrogen oxides.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the nation's power industry investment reached 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 68% over the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, of which power investment was 2.75 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of total investment, and 2.58 trillion yuan of power grid investment. 48%. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the nation’s power industry investment reached 5.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4% over the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, of which power investment was 2.95 trillion yuan, accounting for 51% of total investment, and grid investment was 2.85 trillion yuan. 49% of all investment.
According to the direction of electricity price reform, under consideration of rising coal prices, making up for historical debts, and a 8% return on net assets of power companies, the national average selling electricity price in 2015 should be 710.0 yuan/kwh, which is an increase of 142.7 yuan from 2010. / Kilowatt-hour, an increase of 25.2%, an average annual increase of 4.6%; 2020 sales price should be 802.2 yuan / kilowatt-hour, an increase of 92.3 yuan / kilowatt-hour, an increase of 13.0% over 2015, an average annual growth of 2.5%.
The electricity industry will boost the total output of society by an average of 2.8 trillion yuan during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and provide about 2.7 million jobs per year; it will increase the average annual social output by 3.0 during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period. About trillion yuan, about 3 million jobs are provided each year.
3. Giving priority to the development of hydropower and optimizing the development of coal-fired power The coal-fired power generating unit of China’s coal-fired power station has the lowest cost of electricity generation; the cost of nuclear power generation is less than that of the coal-fired power generation unit of the load center; currently, the cost of generating electricity from hydropower is relatively low, and hydropower is considered to protect the ecological environment. The increase in investment in resettlement and other aspects and the increase in transmission costs, etc., the cost of utilities is close to or slightly higher than the cost of coal and electricity in the load center; the cost of generating electricity from wind power, solar energy, biomass, and natural gas is much higher than coal, nuclear and hydropower. In order to co-ordinate the next decade and long-term development strategy, the power supply development must adhere to the principle of giving priority to the development of hydropower, optimizing the development of coal-fired power, vigorously developing nuclear power, actively promoting new energy generation, moderately developing natural gas for centralized power generation, and developing distributed generation according to local conditions.
Hydropower: Promote the integrated development and development of hydropower basin cascades: promote integrated hydropower basin cascade development. We will actively promote the construction of large-scale hydropower stations in the southwest region, develop local and small rivers' hydropower resources according to local conditions, and implement the combination of large, medium and small development. Actively develop hydropower basin planning and preparatory work in Tibet to ensure the sustainable development of hydropower.
Expand the scope of resource allocation. Large-scale hydropower bases meet the electricity demand of the region, and they are transported to the East and Central regions where the market demand is large and the electricity price is high. This ensures the efficient use of hydropower resources. Promote the development of hydropower resources in neighboring countries and transmit electricity to China.
Scientific planning and construction of pumped storage power stations. Strengthen the overall optimization and unified planning of power supply, increase the development of pumped water storage, increase the economical efficiency and flexibility of power system operation, and promote the reasonable consumption of renewable energy power generation.
Development priorities: Continue to accelerate the development of seven hydropower bases in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, Wujiang River, Hongshui River in Nanpanjiang River, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the North Main Stream, Xiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Northeast China. The development is completed as soon as possible. We will focus on the development of six hydropower bases in the western region, including the Jinsha River, Yalong River, Dadu River, Lancang River, Nu River, and the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Promote the development of hydropower development in Tibet, such as the Brahmaputra. Development of hydropower in Myanmar and transmission of electricity to China.
The development target of conventional hydropower: During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the national scale of hydropower starts will be 120 million kilowatts, and the production will be about 87.50 million kilowatts. In 2015, the national average installed capacity of hydropower is estimated to be about 284 million kilowatts. The national level of hydropower development reached 52% (calculated according to technologically exploitable capacity), of which hydropower was basically developed in the eastern and central regions, and 43% in the west. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the scale of hydropower production in the country is about 46 million kilowatts. By 2020, the national hydropower capacity will be about 330 million kilowatts. The level of hydropower development in the country is 61%, of which the hydropower development in the west is 53%. In 2030, it is estimated that the installed capacity of hydropower in the country will be 450 million kilowatts, which exceeds the economically exploitable capacity. With the exception of Tibet, the nation’s hydropower basic development is completed.
Pumped storage development goals: To strengthen unified planning, accelerate the development of storage power stations, improve the performance of power system peaking and frequency regulation, and meet the need for large-scale development of new energy power generation. Strengthen the preliminary work of pumped storage power stations and do a good job of project reserves. Establish and improve the grid price mechanism and ancillary service pricing mechanism to ensure reasonable investment returns for the construction of storage power stations.
It is planned that the planned installed capacity of the storage power station in 2015 will be about 41 million kilowatts, and about 60 million kilowatts in 2020.
At the same time, there are still some deep-seated problems in the development of the power industry. The unified planning of the power industry needs to be strengthened urgently. The scientific and reasonable electricity pricing mechanism has not yet been formed. The sustainable development capacity of power companies is weak, and the proportion of existing green power generation is far from the future development goals. The ability of resource allocation cannot meet the needs of economic and social development, the capacity for scientific and technological innovation needs to be improved, and market-oriented reform needs to be deepened.
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†research report issued by the China Electricity Council, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the development direction of China’s power industry will be driven by scientific and technological innovation, and will be based on the transformation of power development methods. Adhere to saving priority, give priority to the development of hydropower, optimize the development of coal-fired electricity, vigorously develop nuclear power, actively promote new energy generation, moderately develop centralized natural gas power generation, develop distributed generation according to local conditions, accelerate the construction of a strong smart grid, drive the development of the equipment industry, and promote green harmony development of.
First, the power demand: "12th Five-Year" demand average annual growth of 7.5% to 9.5%
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†research report of the “Power Industry†pointed out that factors such as the adjustment of the national economy and its development stage, adjustment of economic structure and economic layout, demand for primary energy, development of key industries, consumption of electricity for residents, demand side management, and energy conservation should be considered. Using a variety of power demand forecasting methods, it is estimated that by 2015, the total electricity consumption in the society will reach 5.99 trillion to 6.57 trillion kwh. The average annual growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan will be 7.5% to 9.5%. The reference standard for the ITU reference project is 6.27 trillion kWh with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%; the maximum load is 994 million to 1.090 billion kilowatts, and the average annual growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 8.6% to 10.6%. The benchmark scheme recommends 1.04 billion kilowatts. , an average annual increase of 9.6%.
In 2020, the whole society will use 7.85 trillion to 8.56 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an average annual increase of 4.6% to 6.4% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and a benchmark program of 8.20 trillion kwh, an average annual increase of 5.5%; The maximum load reaches 1.317 billion to 1.436 billion kilowatts, and the average annual growth rate for the “13th Five-Year Plan†is 4.8% to 6.7%. The benchmark scheme recommends 1.377 billion kilowatts, an average annual increase of 5.8%.
The coefficient of power flexibility is 0.99 for the "12th Five-Year Plan" period and 0.85 for the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The power demand growth in the western region is higher than that in the eastern region.
II. Planning Objectives: The installed capacity in 2015 will reach 1.437 billion kilowatts in 2015. The target of the plan is that the installed capacity of power generation in the country will reach 1.437 billion kilowatts, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%. Among them, 286 million kilowatts of hydropower, 41 million kilowatts of pumped storage, and coal It has 933 million kilowatts of electricity, 43 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 30 million kilowatts of gas power, 100 million kilowatts of wind power, 2 million kilowatts of solar power, and biomass power generation and other 3 million kilowatts. The country’s 110 kV and above lines reached 1.33 million kilometers, with a capacity of 5.6 billion kVA. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach 474 million kilowatts, accounting for 33% of the total installed capacity, which is 6.3 percentage points higher than that of 2010; non-fossil energy generation will be around 1.52 trillion kwh, accounting for 24.1 percent of the total generating capacity. %, an increase of 3% compared with 2010; non-fossil energy generation can replace fossil energy 500 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 11.9% of primary energy consumption.
Planning goals for 2020: The country's installed power generation capacity will reach approximately 1.885 billion kilowatts, an average annual increase of 5.6%. Among them, hydropower is 330 million kilowatts, pumped storage is 60 million kilowatts, coal power is 1.16 billion kilowatts, nuclear power is 90 million kilowatts, gas power is 40 million kilowatts, wind power is 180 million kilowatts, solar power is 20 million kilowatts, biomass, tides, geothermal, etc. 500 Ten thousand kilowatts. The country’s 110 kV and above lines reached 1.76 million kilometers, with a transformation capacity of 7.9 billion kVA. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach 685 million kilowatts, accounting for 36.3% of the total installed capacity, up 3.3 percentage points over 2015; non-fossil energy generation will be around 2.2 trillion kwh, accounting for 26.9 percent of the total generating capacity. %, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from 2015; Non-fossil energy generation can replace fossil fuels of 700 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 14.1% of primary energy consumption.
Through the development of non-fossil energy sources and reduction of coal consumption and line losses, compared with 2010, the electricity industry in 2015 will save 264 million tons of standard coal annually, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 655 million tons, and reduce sulfur dioxide by 5.65 million tons, reducing nitrogen emissions. 2.48 million tons of oxides; compared with 2015, the power industry in 2020 will save 273 million tons of standard coal, 670 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 5.94 million tons of sulfur dioxide emissions, and 2.56 million tons of nitrogen oxides.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the nation's power industry investment reached 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 68% over the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, of which power investment was 2.75 trillion yuan, accounting for 52% of total investment, and 2.58 trillion yuan of power grid investment. 48%. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the nation’s power industry investment reached 5.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4% over the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, of which power investment was 2.95 trillion yuan, accounting for 51% of total investment, and grid investment was 2.85 trillion yuan. 49% of all investment.
According to the direction of electricity price reform, under consideration of rising coal prices, making up for historical debts, and a 8% return on net assets of power companies, the national average selling electricity price in 2015 should be 710.0 yuan/kwh, which is an increase of 142.7 yuan from 2010. / Kilowatt-hour, an increase of 25.2%, an average annual increase of 4.6%; 2020 sales price should be 802.2 yuan / kilowatt-hour, an increase of 92.3 yuan / kilowatt-hour, an increase of 13.0% over 2015, an average annual growth of 2.5%.
The electricity industry will boost the total output of society by an average of 2.8 trillion yuan during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and provide about 2.7 million jobs per year; it will increase the average annual social output by 3.0 during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period. About trillion yuan, about 3 million jobs are provided each year.
3. Giving priority to the development of hydropower and optimizing the development of coal-fired power The coal-fired power generating unit of China’s coal-fired power station has the lowest cost of electricity generation; the cost of nuclear power generation is less than that of the coal-fired power generation unit of the load center; currently, the cost of generating electricity from hydropower is relatively low, and hydropower is considered to protect the ecological environment. The increase in investment in resettlement and other aspects and the increase in transmission costs, etc., the cost of utilities is close to or slightly higher than the cost of coal and electricity in the load center; the cost of generating electricity from wind power, solar energy, biomass, and natural gas is much higher than coal, nuclear and hydropower. In order to co-ordinate the next decade and long-term development strategy, the power supply development must adhere to the principle of giving priority to the development of hydropower, optimizing the development of coal-fired power, vigorously developing nuclear power, actively promoting new energy generation, moderately developing natural gas for centralized power generation, and developing distributed generation according to local conditions.
Hydropower: Promote the integrated development and development of hydropower basin cascades: promote integrated hydropower basin cascade development. We will actively promote the construction of large-scale hydropower stations in the southwest region, develop local and small rivers' hydropower resources according to local conditions, and implement the combination of large, medium and small development. Actively develop hydropower basin planning and preparatory work in Tibet to ensure the sustainable development of hydropower.
Expand the scope of resource allocation. Large-scale hydropower bases meet the electricity demand of the region, and they are transported to the East and Central regions where the market demand is large and the electricity price is high. This ensures the efficient use of hydropower resources. Promote the development of hydropower resources in neighboring countries and transmit electricity to China.
Scientific planning and construction of pumped storage power stations. Strengthen the overall optimization and unified planning of power supply, increase the development of pumped water storage, increase the economical efficiency and flexibility of power system operation, and promote the reasonable consumption of renewable energy power generation.
Development priorities: Continue to accelerate the development of seven hydropower bases in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, Wujiang River, Hongshui River in Nanpanjiang River, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the North Main Stream, Xiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Northeast China. The development is completed as soon as possible. We will focus on the development of six hydropower bases in the western region, including the Jinsha River, Yalong River, Dadu River, Lancang River, Nu River, and the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Promote the development of hydropower development in Tibet, such as the Brahmaputra. Development of hydropower in Myanmar and transmission of electricity to China.
The development target of conventional hydropower: During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the national scale of hydropower starts will be 120 million kilowatts, and the production will be about 87.50 million kilowatts. In 2015, the national average installed capacity of hydropower is estimated to be about 284 million kilowatts. The national level of hydropower development reached 52% (calculated according to technologically exploitable capacity), of which hydropower was basically developed in the eastern and central regions, and 43% in the west. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the scale of hydropower production in the country is about 46 million kilowatts. By 2020, the national hydropower capacity will be about 330 million kilowatts. The level of hydropower development in the country is 61%, of which the hydropower development in the west is 53%. In 2030, it is estimated that the installed capacity of hydropower in the country will be 450 million kilowatts, which exceeds the economically exploitable capacity. With the exception of Tibet, the nation’s hydropower basic development is completed.
Pumped storage development goals: To strengthen unified planning, accelerate the development of storage power stations, improve the performance of power system peaking and frequency regulation, and meet the need for large-scale development of new energy power generation. Strengthen the preliminary work of pumped storage power stations and do a good job of project reserves. Establish and improve the grid price mechanism and ancillary service pricing mechanism to ensure reasonable investment returns for the construction of storage power stations.
It is planned that the planned installed capacity of the storage power station in 2015 will be about 41 million kilowatts, and about 60 million kilowatts in 2020.
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