It seems that in the eve of the industry's upcoming outbreak, various brokers have sent research reports to support the LED lighting industry and related companies.
Two years ago, this small industry has emerged as a company with A-share storytelling money. In the past two years, the share prices of many companies have more than five times. Today, with the development and reform commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Communications, the three ministries jointly organized the semiconductor lighting product application demonstration project (hereinafter referred to as "three ministries lighting project"), it once again entered everyone's vision.
Wu Qingyi, a director of Zhejiang Sunshine, who is involved in LED applications, said that with the current price of LED lights, it may take three years for this market to start.
However, the companies that do LED chips do not look at it this way. Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda have invested heavily in buying key equipment and began to increase production capacity by several times and dozens of times.
A series of LED lighting companies have seen large gains in the early stage, and the stock price has already reflected too much future benefits. When we turn from concept-oriented to performance-based, who is right in the rhythm of the LED lighting market, can deliver good results and meet the expectations of today's investors.
Will it start next year or three years later?
"The era of LED lighting is coming... LED lighting is expected to start at the end of 2011... The LED industry is entering the golden development period..."
LED lights will replace incandescent lamps and become the main lighting tools, rather than staying in the field of landscape lighting, which is almost a consensus from industry companies to the investment community. However, because the cost of LED lights is still high, when it can be replaced, the focus is on the cost of LED lights.
Yu Bin, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, pointed out in a research report on November 29 that the cost per watt of LED lamps is 10 times that of fluorescent lamps, but considering the power saving effect, the illumination cost is within 5 times of the latter. He believes that LED lights can be recovered in 10,000 hours.
This view is quite common in the city, and the advent of the LED lighting era is overwhelming.
Wu Qingyi, the director of Zhejiang Sunshine, did not see it this way. Zhejiang Sunshine, recently involved in LED applications, is the only A-share company that won the bid for the lighting project of the three ministries. LED application is the most end of the whole LED lighting, and the closest to the consumer.
On December 6, Wu Qingyi told reporters: "The most common incandescent lamp is 1.5-3 yuan, the energy-saving lamp corresponding to the power is about 10 yuan, the difference is 4-5 times. And the LED lamp is 10 times more expensive than the energy-saving lamp, so Its price/performance ratio is not good enough. Now European governments have banned the use or production of incandescent lamps, but in my opinion, the best alternative to incandescent lamps in three years is energy-saving lamps. The price of LED lamps has dropped to energy-saving lamps. At about three times, this market will start very fast and there will be explosive growth."
Wu Qingyi said: "The replacement of incandescent and halogen lamps by LED lamps is the trend of the times, so we have to lay out now. However, we cannot take long-term goals as short-term goals. At present, the company's main products are energy-saving lamps."
Hao gambling LED chip
According to Wind statistics, in the past two years, Sanan Optoelectronics, Dehao Runda, Silan Micro, and Zhejiang Sunshine have increased by 1007%, 650%, 613% and 436% respectively. During this period, Sanan Optoelectronics has issued two additional issuances, and Dehao Runda and Silan Micro have issued additional positions. Every time an additional issuance, all organizations are eager to win, and the pursuit is comparable to playing new shares.
In the past two years, the top ten tradable shares of these companies are often rotated by various institutions, and the ten seats in the public fund market accounted for seven seats.
Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro mainly do LED chips. In April 2009, Dehao Runda entered the field of LED packaging through mergers and acquisitions. In the second half of this year, it raised 1.5 billion yuan to raise its position into LED chips.
From the perspective of the entire industry chain, LED chips can only be considered in the middle, and LED packaging and applications are downstream.
LED chips, the cornerstone of which is the substrate material, and the epitaxial wafers are produced by MOCVD equipment. After the chip manufacturers purchase the two, they are made into chips and then cut into standardized chips. The LED packaging industry is to perform secondary optical processing on the chip, while the LED application is to make the lamp.
Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda have shown the momentum of “Gambling†LED chips this year, respectively, and announced that they will buy 200 and 130 MOCVD equipment. These equipments are used for projects of 12 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan respectively. The two companies, in 2009, sales of LED chips were 450 million yuan and 0.
The unit price of MOCVD equipment is about 20 million yuan. The two companies buy one piece of equipment and can get a subsidy of 8 million to 10 million yuan in the local government. If the price and subsidy remain unchanged, the capital is not the biggest problem. However, the global MOCVD production this year is about 600 units. They plan to buy half of the global capacity this year.
On December 7, Sanan Optoelectronics told reporters: "The first batch of 40 MOCVDs we have ordered are coming in, and it is expected to be put into production next year. This batch of equipment is no more expensive than before. The substrate materials we ordered are mainly Sapphire-based, raw material prices have increased from the beginning of the year."
The above-mentioned Sanan Optoelectronics people are not worried about the sales problem of capacity expansion. "The current market is in short supply." In summary, LED products must be reduced in price, and the market will be launched on a large scale. The upstream is still an oligopoly, and it is still unclear whether it will cut prices.
When the capacity is expanding rapidly, the technical problems that may arise or the progress of mainstream technology are too fast, and it will be a roadblock for the two companies to turn investment into real income.
A PE person in Shanghai pointed out: "I am not very optimistic about making chips. On the one hand, the quality of domestic LED chips is still far from the international level. On the other hand, the technology update is too fast, a chip manufacturer I bought a machine that can cut the chip into four pieces at a time, but the performance of cutting 16 pieces at a time comes out immediately."
In the opinion of this PE person, if you purchase too many equipment at one time, you must prepare the supporting equipment; it is very easy to encounter the problem of backward equipment. Therefore, he is more optimistic about the downstream LED application companies: "The focus is to buy good chips, not to be cheap. Then do a good job and make a really good application."
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