On March 12, the Ningde Times prospectus was updated, supplementing information such as 2017 performance. Not long ago, Foxconn’s rapid “clearance of customs clearance†was considered as a model for the listing of the industrial unicorn company, and the Ningde era as the “unicorn†of the lithium battery industry was also placed high hopes.
If the Ningde era can also be treated like Foxconn, the time to market in Ningde may be reduced from the original 1-2 years to several months. This is obviously a revelry for the capital market. Sure enough, after the update of the Ningde Times prospectus, relevant concept stocks were counted numerous times.
Relevant concept stocks have issued announcements emphasizing that they are ready to “keep warmth†with the Ningde era. However, the Ningde era itself has been quite low-key, and the updated prospectus also reveals some of the times behind the Ningde era. Worry.
Performance is affected by policy
The prospectus of the Ningde Times shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2015, 2016 and 2017 was 931 million, 3.022 billion and 3.972 billion respectively, and the year-on-year increases of 2016 and 2017 were 224.60% and 31.44 respectively. %, maintaining a relatively high growth rate.
At the same time, Ningde's operating revenue in 2017 was 19.997 billion, an increase of 34.40% year-on-year, which was basically the same as the increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company. However, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2017 in the Ningde era It was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.47%.
Although there is no explanation for the reasons for this, some investors and institutions believe that this is related to the sharp fall in the government's new energy subsidies. The Ningde Times also hinted at the risk of new energy auto industry policy changes.
Another corroboration comes from the proportion of the power battery system's revenue to the company's total revenue, and the change in the gross margin of the Ningde era in the past three years. In 2015, 2016, and 2017, Ningde Power Battery System accounted for 87.98%, 95.55%, and 87.01% of the company's main business revenue, respectively, which is arguably the main source of income.
From 2015 to 2017, the consolidated gross profit margin in the Ningde era was 38.64%, 43.70% and 36.29%, respectively. The gross profit rate in 2017 decreased compared with the previous two years. In 2017, the sales volume of power battery systems in the Ningde era increased significantly. It brought lower costs, but the gross profit rate in the Ningde era fell instead. The decline in subsidies was considered one of the reasons.
Some securities analysts said that the sharp decline in subsidies in 2017 led to a general reduction in power battery prices by 25%-30%, while the price of power batteries in 2018 will continue to decline.
In addition, the growth in the sales volume of the Ningde-era power battery system itself is also related to the “policyâ€. Ningde era can quickly get a lot of car companies sought after, and policy support for China's battery companies have a great relationship, if out of the policy of "protection circle", Ningde era really can compete with foreign battery companies on the same stage there is doubt.
The future risks of the new energy vehicle industry will gradually fade
New energy vehicles are still hot, but there are growing concerns about the future development of the entire industry, and these risks may not be too far away from the Ningde era.
According to the prospectus of the Ningde Times, after the “Ningde era Huxi Lithium-ion Power Battery Production Base Project†reaches production, the company will add 24GWh of new production capacity, which is equivalent to more than twice the 2017 sales volume. By 2020, the total production capacity in the Ningde era is expected to reach 50GWh.
The rapid expansion of production capacity has occurred in the entire new energy power battery industry. According to open information, in 2018, China's power battery capacity will have a capacity surplus of up to 257%, and excess capacity will exist until 2025.
At the same time, the upsurge of new energy has caused the price of raw materials in the upper reaches of the market to soar, while the downstream vehicle manufacturers are constantly keeping prices down, and the days of battery manufacturers sandwiched between them are not good. The competition within the power battery industry is also intensifying, and opponents such as BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech will threaten the Ningde era.
In addition, whether electric vehicles can replace fuel vehicles and electric vehicles in the end is the best option for replacing fuel vehicles, and it has caused more and more questions. Some securities analysts said that at present, compared with crude oil, lithium and cobalt resources are more scarce, and China itself lacks such resources. Even if new energy vehicles are developed, they may not be able to get rid of external resource dependence.
In the Chinese market, the policy attributes of new energy vehicles are irrefutable. If the policy orientation changes, or if the policy “protection power†weakens, the Ningde era pushed by the policy will face enormous risks.
At present, the industry leading position in the Ningde era is undoubted, but the market value of BYD from battery to vehicle business is more than 80 billion yuan. Can Ningde really hold up more than 130 billion in valuation? This question can only wait for the Ningde era to go after the listing to find the answer.
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